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УДК 338.432:637.11:001.895:339.13.024(477)

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36887/2415-8453-2025-4-84

Voloshchuk Maksym,
Candidate of Agricultural Sciences, doctoral student,
Livestock Farming Institute of National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine
https://orcid.org/0009-0004-5605-9826

JEL classification: Q13, O32, Q18, F15

Published: 19.12.2025

As of early 2025, Ukraine’s dairy industry is undergoing a profound transformation driven by the cumulative impact of military aggression, energy instability, and global technological shifts. The article substantiates that ensuring food security under martial law requires a transition from traditional management models to the “Dairy 4.0” concept. The relevance of the research stems from the need to develop adaptive methodological tools for environmental assessment, enabling enterprises to mitigate risks and realize strategic development goals through 2027. The article aims to develop and substantiate a methodological approach to identification and comprehensive assessment of external environmental factors influencing the innovative development of dairy enterprises, ensuring their resilience and adaptability. The study employs a systems approach and a modified PESTEL matrix adapted to martial law conditions. The Temperature-Humidity Index (THI) is used to assess environmental factors, while the Milk: Feed ratio is applied for economic analysis. Scenario modeling and the construction of an integrated factor assessment matrix allowed for the determination of strategic priorities for innovative activity. A four-stage methodology for environmental assessment was developed that integrates political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal factors. Key “Dairy 4.0” drivers were identified, including artificial intelligence, IoT sensors, and precision fermentation. An analysis of industry dynamics confirmed an intensification trend: despite a forecast decline in the total cattle population to 1.15 million heads by 2025, the industrial sector’s share is rising to 40%. It was established that using AI to mitigate thermal stress can preserve up to 16% of productivity. A strategic response matrix was constructed to allow management to focus resources on critical areas such as energy autonomy and labor shortages. The proposed methodological approach serves as a strategic management tool that combines technological modernization with food security requirements and ESG standards. Successful integration into the European economic space is found to be possible only through the implementation of digital traceability systems and precision livestock farming.

Keywords: innovative development, dairy farming, food security, Dairy 4.0, PESTEL analysis, thermal stress (THI), martial law, precision fermentation.

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Quote article, APA style

Voloshchuk M. Methodological approach to identifying and assessing external environmental factors of innovative development for dairy enterprises in the context of ensuring food security. Ukrainian Journal of Applied Economics and Technology. 2025. №4. 417-421 pp. https://doi.org/10.36887/2415-8453-2025-4-84

Quote article, MLA style

Voloshchuk M. Methodological approach to identifying and assessing external environmental factors of innovative development for dairy enterprises in the context of ensuring food security. Ukrainian Journal of Applied Economics and Technology. https://doi.org/10.36887/2415-8453-2025-4-84