УДК 338.439.5:633.11 (477)
JEL classification: P45; Q17
Introduction. Wheat production is a leading industry in both the agricultural sector and the public sector as a whole. This is due to his crucial role in ensuring the food security of the country. Considering the leading role of wheat grain in the list of Ukrainian export commodities, there is a need to find a compromise between ensuring the country’s food security and increasing the presence of these Ukrainian products on the global market.
The purpose of the article is assessment of the place and determination of the role of Ukrainian producers in the world wheat grain market, identification of factors that impede the expansion of the presence of relevant domestic products in the global market.
Results. The analysis of world production, final stocks and consumption of wheat grain has allowed to determine the increase of production volumes with excess of consumption rates, which led to price stabilization. An analysis of the volume and structure of world wheat grain exports has made it possible to determine that Ukraine is in the top ten. The largest importers of Ukrainian wheat in Europe are Italy and Spain; Indonesia, Bangladesh and Thailand in Asia. Asia in the overall structure in the 2014-2018 average had about 49 %. Africa ranks second after Asia, with a volume of 28 %, with half imported by Egypt. The prospects for the markets of Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia for export of Ukrainian grain have been substantiated, taking into account trends in population growth, complications of natural conditions for cultivation and low transportation costs. The cost forecast of 1 wheat metric ton for the future is made. The grain market segment occupied by Ukraine according to the quality of its products is considered.
The price and quality of imported and exported wheat grain in Ukraine are analyzed. The necessity of increasing the volume of mineral fertilizers application to increase the yield to prove the problem of these disproportions has been proved.
Conclusions. Quality of products will become a key factor of competitiveness in the world market of wheat production in the near future. North African countries – Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia – are a promising direction for expanding global markets for Ukrainian wheat. The biggest problem for domestic producers of wheat grain is its poor quality in many parameters. To improve the quality, it is necessary to significantly increase the amount of application of minimal fertilizers.
Keywords: wheat grain, world market, production, consumption, final stocks, forecast, slowdown, export, price, quality, fertilizers.
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The article was received 12.07.2019