339.5.012:633.1:658.8.012.2

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36887/2415-8453-2019-4-23

Ivan CHERNIAVSKYI
post-graduate student, Ukrainian research institute of productivity of agro-industrial complex

JEL classification: Q17

Abstract

The scientific article is devoted to the problem of forecasting the grain production volume and enterprise export potential of the Ukrainian grain industry (taking into account the development level of domestic breeding) for the medium term under 3 alternative scenarios. Grain sowing area was forecasted by 2023 using an adaptive forecasting model. The results of the conducted research show that by 2023 the area of corn sowing will increase to 4922 thousand hectares. The corn yield forecast for 2023 has been developed, which shows that the yield level will increase substantially. So, if in 2017 the yield of this crop was 61 hwt / ha, then on average in 2023 it will be 76.6 hwt / ha. It is established that yield is one of the main factors for increasing the volume of grain production. The forecast suggests that on average, corn grain exports from Ukraine tend to grow in the future, namely that it will grow by 11.8 % in 2023 compared to the 2018/2019 marketing year and amount to 30835 thousand tons. Under the optimistic scenario, corn production in the year 2023 will be 42536 thousand tons, which is 54.4 % more than in the 2018/2019 marketing year. The results of the study show that in the future (by 2023), the volumes of maize seeds use will increase – on average they will increase by 8 %, and by the optimistic forecast – by 25 % compared to the 2018/2019 marketing year and will amount to 585 thousand tons.

The analysis shows that in 2019 there was a rapid development of both world and Ukrainian breeding. Thus, analyzing the varieties of the main grain crops, it should be noted that in the analyzed period the number of registered varieties suitable for distribution in Ukraine increased by 11.7 times, including the domestic ones – 10.5 times. Accordingly, maize grew 21.8 times and 14.4 times, respectively. It is worth noting a fairly high proportion of domestic wheat varieties, whose share is 72 %. What cannot be said for other crops, in particular, the share of domestic varieties is only 47 %.

In the medium to long term, Ukraine can increase its seed exports by a dozen times. Opportunities for capacity-building of seed plants are steadily increasing every year. Large seed companies, such as “Pioneer”, “Monsanto”, “Syngenta”, “Moisadur”, “Euralis Semens” and domestic “Mais”, “Eridon”, “Selena”, “Eurostandard”, have potential to attract foreign investments to bring Ukraine to the forefront in sales of cereal seeds (wheat, barley, oats, rye and corn) and oilseeds (sunflower, soybean, mustard and rapeseed).

Key words: cereals, corn, corn seeds, forecasting, adaptive forecasting models, export potential, acreage, yield.

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The article was received 05.09.2019